dc.contributor.author | Robbins, HA | |
dc.contributor.author | Alcala, K | |
dc.contributor.author | Swerdlow, AJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Schoemaker, MJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Wareham, N | |
dc.contributor.author | Travis, RC | |
dc.contributor.author | Crosbie, PAJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Callister, M | |
dc.contributor.author | Baldwin, DR | |
dc.contributor.author | Landy, R | |
dc.contributor.author | Johansson, M | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-11T12:58:28Z | |
dc.date.available | 2021-06-11T12:58:28Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-06-08 | |
dc.identifier.citation | British journal of cancer, 2021, 124 (12), pp. 2026 - 2034 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0007-0920 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.icr.ac.uk/handle/internal/4633 | |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1532-1827 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41416-021-01278-0 | |
dc.description.abstract | BACKGROUND: The National Health Service England (NHS) classifies individuals as eligible for lung cancer screening using two risk prediction models, PLCOm2012 and Liverpool Lung Project-v2 (LLPv2). However, no study has compared the performance of lung cancer risk models in the UK. METHODS: We analysed current and former smokers aged 40-80 years in the UK Biobank (N = 217,199), EPIC-UK (N = 30,813), and Generations Study (N = 25,777). We quantified model calibration (ratio of expected to observed cases, E/O) and discrimination (AUC). RESULTS: Risk discrimination in UK Biobank was best for the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT, AUC = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.81-0.84), followed by the LCRAT (AUC = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.79-0.82) and the Bach model (AUC = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.79-0.81). Results were similar in EPIC-UK and the Generations Study. All models overestimated risk in all cohorts, with E/O in UK Biobank ranging from 1.20 for LLPv3 (95% CI = 1.14-1.27) to 2.16 for LLPv2 (95% CI = 2.05-2.28). Overestimation increased with area-level socioeconomic status. In the combined cohorts, USPSTF 2013 criteria classified 50.7% of future cases as screening eligible. The LCDRAT and LCRAT identified 60.9%, followed by PLCOm2012 (58.3%), Bach (58.0%), LLPv3 (56.6%), and LLPv2 (53.7%). CONCLUSION: In UK cohorts, the ability of risk prediction models to classify future lung cancer cases as eligible for screening was best for LCDRAT/LCRAT, very good for PLCOm2012, and lowest for LLPv2. Our results highlight the importance of validating prediction tools in specific countries. | |
dc.format | Print-Electronic | |
dc.format.extent | 2026 - 2034 | |
dc.language | eng | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.publisher | SPRINGERNATURE | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 | |
dc.title | Comparative performance of lung cancer risk models to define lung screening eligibility in the United Kingdom. | |
dc.type | Journal Article | |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2021-01-13 | |
rioxxterms.version | VoR | |
rioxxterms.versionofrecord | 10.1038/s41416-021-01278-0 | |
rioxxterms.licenseref.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | |
dc.relation.isPartOf | British journal of cancer | |
pubs.issue | 12 | |
pubs.notes | Not known | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research/Aetiological Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology/Aetiological Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research/Aetiological Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology/Aetiological Epidemiology | |
pubs.publication-status | Published | |
pubs.volume | 124 | |
pubs.embargo.terms | Not known | |
icr.researchteam | Aetiological Epidemiology | |
icr.researchteam | Aetiological Epidemiology | |
dc.contributor.icrauthor | Schoemaker, Minouk | |