dc.contributor.author | Hodgson, JT | |
dc.contributor.author | McElvenny, DM | |
dc.contributor.author | Darnton, AJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Price, MJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Peto, J | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-09-10T14:09:06Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2005-02-14 | |
dc.identifier | 3 | |
dc.identifier.citation | BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER, 2005, 92 pp. 587 - 593 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0007-0920 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.icr.ac.uk/handle/internal/2599 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/sj.bjc.6602307 | |
dc.description.abstract | The British mesothelioma register contains all deaths from 1968 to 2001 where mesothelioma was mentioned on the death certificate. These data were used to predict the future burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain. Poisson regression analysis was used to model male mesothelioma deaths from 1968 to 2001 as a function of the rise and fall of asbestos exposure during the 20th century, and hence to predict numbers of male deaths in the years 2002 - 2050. The annual number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain has risen increasingly rapidly from 153 deaths in 1968 to 1848 in 2001 and, using our preferred model, is predicted to peak at around 1950 to 2450 deaths per year between 2011 and 2015. Following this peak, the number of deaths is expected to decline rapidly. The eventual death rate will depend on the background level and any residual asbestos exposure. Between 1968 and 2050, there will have been approximately 90 000 deaths from mesothelioma in Great Britain, 65 000 of which will occur after 2001. | |
dc.format.extent | 587 - 593 | |
dc.language | eng | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.publisher | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 | |
dc.title | The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050 | |
dc.type | Journal Article | |
rioxxterms.versionofrecord | 10.1038/sj.bjc.6602307 | |
rioxxterms.licenseref.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 | |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2005-02-14 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | |
dc.relation.isPartOf | BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER | |
pubs.notes | affiliation: Hodgson, JT (Reprint Author), Hlth & Safety Execut, Epidemiol & Med Stat Unit, Magdalen House,Trinity Rd, Bootle L20 3QZ, Merseyside, England. Hlth & Safety Execut, Epidemiol & Med Stat Unit, Bootle L20 3QZ, Merseyside, England. Inst Canc Res, Epidemiol Sect, Sutton SM2 5NG, Surrey, England. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. keywords: mesothelioma; mortality; Great Britain; prediction keywords-plus: MALIGNANT MESOTHELIOMA; PLEURAL MESOTHELIOMA; ASBESTOS WORKERS; UPDATE research-areas: Oncology web-of-science-categories: Oncology author-email: [email protected] number-of-cited-references: 18 times-cited: 235 usage-count-last-180-days: 1 usage-count-since-2013: 12 journal-iso: Br. J. Cancer doc-delivery-number: 895GN unique-id: ISI:000226849000026 oa: gold_or_bronze da: 2018-09-10 | |
pubs.notes | Not known | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR | |
pubs.volume | 92 | |
pubs.embargo.terms | Not known | |
dc.contributor.icrauthor | Peto, Julian | |