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dc.contributor.authorHodgson, JTen_US
dc.contributor.authorMcElvenny, DMen_US
dc.contributor.authorDarnton, AJen_US
dc.contributor.authorPrice, MJen_US
dc.contributor.authorPeto, Jen_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-09-10T14:09:06Z
dc.date.issued2005-02-14en_US
dc.identifier3en_US
dc.identifier.citationBRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER, 2005, 92 pp. 587 - 593en_US
dc.identifier.issn0007-0920en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.icr.ac.uk/handle/internal/2599
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/sj.bjc.6602307en_US
dc.description.abstractThe British mesothelioma register contains all deaths from 1968 to 2001 where mesothelioma was mentioned on the death certificate. These data were used to predict the future burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain. Poisson regression analysis was used to model male mesothelioma deaths from 1968 to 2001 as a function of the rise and fall of asbestos exposure during the 20th century, and hence to predict numbers of male deaths in the years 2002 - 2050. The annual number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain has risen increasingly rapidly from 153 deaths in 1968 to 1848 in 2001 and, using our preferred model, is predicted to peak at around 1950 to 2450 deaths per year between 2011 and 2015. Following this peak, the number of deaths is expected to decline rapidly. The eventual death rate will depend on the background level and any residual asbestos exposure. Between 1968 and 2050, there will have been approximately 90 000 deaths from mesothelioma in Great Britain, 65 000 of which will occur after 2001.en_US
dc.format.extent587 - 593en_US
dc.languageEnglishen_US
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUPen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.titleThe expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050en_US
dc.typeJournal Article
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1038/sj.bjc.6602307en_US
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2005-02-14en_US
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_US
dc.relation.isPartOfBRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCERen_US
pubs.notesaffiliation: Hodgson, JT (Reprint Author), Hlth & Safety Execut, Epidemiol & Med Stat Unit, Magdalen House,Trinity Rd, Bootle L20 3QZ, Merseyside, England. Hlth & Safety Execut, Epidemiol & Med Stat Unit, Bootle L20 3QZ, Merseyside, England. Inst Canc Res, Epidemiol Sect, Sutton SM2 5NG, Surrey, England. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. keywords: mesothelioma; mortality; Great Britain; prediction keywords-plus: MALIGNANT MESOTHELIOMA; PLEURAL MESOTHELIOMA; ASBESTOS WORKERS; UPDATE research-areas: Oncology web-of-science-categories: Oncology author-email: [email protected] number-of-cited-references: 18 times-cited: 235 usage-count-last-180-days: 1 usage-count-since-2013: 12 journal-iso: Br. J. Cancer doc-delivery-number: 895GN unique-id: ISI:000226849000026 oa: gold_or_bronze da: 2018-09-10en_US
pubs.notesNot knownen_US
pubs.organisational-group/ICR
pubs.volume92en_US
pubs.embargo.termsNot knownen_US
dc.contributor.icrauthorPeto, Julianen_US


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