dc.contributor.author | Pal Choudhury, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Wilcox, AN | |
dc.contributor.author | Brook, MN | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Y | |
dc.contributor.author | Ahearn, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Orr, N | |
dc.contributor.author | Coulson, P | |
dc.contributor.author | Schoemaker, MJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Jones, ME | |
dc.contributor.author | Gail, MH | |
dc.contributor.author | Swerdlow, AJ | |
dc.contributor.author | Chatterjee, N | |
dc.contributor.author | Garcia-Closas, M | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-11-15T10:58:29Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-03-01 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2020, 112 (3), pp. 278 - 285 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0027-8874 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.icr.ac.uk/handle/internal/3416 | |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1460-2105 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1093/jnci/djz113 | |
dc.description.abstract | BACKGROUND: External validation of risk models is critical for risk-stratified breast cancer prevention. We used the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimation (iCARE) as a flexible tool for risk model development and comparative model validation and to make projections for population risk stratification. METHODS: Performance of two recently developed models, one based on the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium analysis (iCARE-BPC3) and another based on a literature review (iCARE-Lit), were compared with two established models (Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study Model) based on classical risk factors in a UK-based cohort of 64 874 white non-Hispanic women (863 patients) age 35-74 years. Risk projections in a target population of US white non-Hispanic women age 50-70 years assessed potential improvements in risk stratification by adding mammographic breast density (MD) and polygenic risk score (PRS). RESULTS: The best calibrated models were iCARE-Lit (expected to observed number of cases [E/O] = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.87 to 1.11) for women younger than 50 years, and iCARE-BPC3 (E/O = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.93 to 1.09) for women 50 years or older. Risk projections using iCARE-BPC3 indicated classical risk factors can identify approximately 500 000 women at moderate to high risk (>3% 5-year risk) in the target population. Addition of MD and a 313-variant PRS is expected to increase this number to approximately 3.5 million women, and among them, approximately 153 000 are expected to develop invasive breast cancer within 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: iCARE models based on classical risk factors perform similarly to or better than BCRAT or IBIS in white non-Hispanic women. Addition of MD and PRS can lead to substantial improvements in risk stratification. However, these integrated models require independent prospective validation before broad clinical applications. | |
dc.format | Print | |
dc.format.extent | 278 - 285 | |
dc.language | eng | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.publisher | OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC | |
dc.rights.uri | https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserved | |
dc.subject | Humans | |
dc.subject | Breast Neoplasms | |
dc.subject | Models, Statistical | |
dc.subject | Risk | |
dc.subject | Reproducibility of Results | |
dc.subject | Adolescent | |
dc.subject | Adult | |
dc.subject | Aged | |
dc.subject | Aged, 80 and over | |
dc.subject | Middle Aged | |
dc.subject | Female | |
dc.subject | Young Adult | |
dc.title | Comparative Validation of Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models and Projections for Future Risk Stratification. | |
dc.type | Journal Article | |
dcterms.dateAccepted | 2019-05-29 | |
rioxxterms.versionofrecord | 10.1093/jnci/djz113 | |
rioxxterms.licenseref.uri | https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserved | |
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate | 2020-03 | |
rioxxterms.type | Journal Article/Review | |
dc.relation.isPartOf | Journal of the National Cancer Institute | |
pubs.issue | 3 | |
pubs.notes | Not known | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research/Aetiological Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research/Complex Trait Genetics | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology/Aetiological Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology/Oncogenetics | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Radiotherapy and Imaging | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Radiotherapy and Imaging/Oncogenetics | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research/Aetiological Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Breast Cancer Research/Complex Trait Genetics | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology/Aetiological Epidemiology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Genetics and Epidemiology/Oncogenetics | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Radiotherapy and Imaging | |
pubs.organisational-group | /ICR/Primary Group/ICR Divisions/Radiotherapy and Imaging/Oncogenetics | |
pubs.publication-status | Published | |
pubs.volume | 112 | |
pubs.embargo.terms | Not known | |
icr.researchteam | Complex Trait Genetics | |
icr.researchteam | Aetiological Epidemiology | |
icr.researchteam | Oncogenetics | |
dc.contributor.icrauthor | Brook, Mark | |
dc.contributor.icrauthor | Schoemaker, Minouk | |
dc.contributor.icrauthor | Jones, Michael | |
dc.contributor.icrauthor | Swerdlow, Anthony | |
dc.contributor.icrauthor | Garcia-Closas, Montserrat | |